November 2008

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Why is health care so expensive?  How does insurance work?

Health insurance giant Humana has some answers available on YouTube.  These brief, two minute videos give a nice introduction to some important health care and health insurance concepts.  The videos so clear and easy to understand anyone could understand it.  

Health experts will of course note that these videos greatly simplify the problems of providing medical care and leave out a lot of important nuances.  Still, as an introduction to important health care concepts, these videos do a fairly good job.

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In “Too Small to Fail, ” The Washington Monthly writes on the success of conservatively-managed small banks in the midst of the financial market collapse. 

Why are small banks succeeding?  First, they are running their business more conservatively; in the tradition of, well, traditional bankers.  Secondly, they develop personal relationships with customers giving them superior information about their customers credit worthiness.   Ben Bernanke terms this being rich in “informational capital.”  Of special note is the following quotation:

According to FDIC data, the failure rate among big banks (those with assets of $1 billion or more) is seven times greater than among small banks.”

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The post-election edition of the Cavalcade of Risk is up at Joe Paduda’s Managed Care Matters.

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It’s time to raise the gas tax.  An economist proposing a tax increase?  Yes.

Increasing taxes overall is rarely beneficial for the economy, but raising the gas tax will increase the welfare of the country.  In earlier posts, I wrote that a higher gas tax makes a lot of sense.  An increased gas tax will reduce driving which will have two beneficial effects: less traffic and less pollution. One could use the added funds from the gas tax to improve public transportation, improve infrastructure, or reduce taxes on income or other goods.

Why is now the time to raise the gas tax?  

  1. When gas prices were over $4 per gallon, raising the gas tax was politically infeasible.  Now, however, with the price of gas under $2.50 in San Diego, a gas tax increase of 50 cents per gallon would still keep gas prices under $3 (which doesn’t sound too bad anymore). 
  2. Furthermore, the government is looking for new revenue sources to plug its huge deficit and the gas tax is one solution.  
  3. Finally, since the elections have just taken place, politicians have some measure of job security at least for a few years.  With this added job security, Congressmen and Congresswomen can increase the gas tax without having to worry about pandering to voters. 
Less traffic, less pollution, and more money for debt or tax relief.  An increase in the gas tax is a win-win proposition.

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Wayne State University’s Economics Department has a nice webpage with links to helpful economic information.  This includes:

  • List of Economics Journals
  • Government Economic Information websites
  • A list of think tanks
  • Information on Financial Markets.

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Pay-for-performance (P4P) is the latest rage among health wonks as to how to improve the health care system. But does P4P really improve quality?

Mullen, Frank and Rosenthal (2008) hope to answer this question. One would initially believe that paying physicians to perform certain medically necessary tasks will improve quality. Further, some P4P involves structural rewards for physician practice EMR. If a physician installed an automated system to remind diabetic patients to get their A1C test, the quality benefits likely will extend to non-diabetic patients as well who will get more regular check-ups.

However, there are some reasons to believe that P4P may not work as expected. Until recently, P4P in the U.S. has been a very small component of a physician’s compensation. In the UK, P4P payments are large [the average GP practice earned $133,200 in P4P payments from the NHS] but since the P4P payments in the U.S. are a small fraction of the physicians income, it likely has little behavioral impact. Further, P4P may not result in better medical care, but better documentation of the care that has always been given. Most importantly, “providers may shift resources toward rewarded dimensions of quality at the expense of unrewarded dimensions, which may result in a decline in overall quality of patient care.”

Data

In order to test whether or not P4P is improving quality, Mullen, Frank and Rosenthal collected data from Pacificare. Pacificare experienced a wave of P4P innovations in the early 1990s until today.

  • 1993: Pacificare begins collecting quality information on providers.
  • 1998: Pacificare makes these quality reports public.
  • 2003: Pacificare starts to pay bonuses based on the provider quality reports. this is named the Quality Incentive Program (QIP)
  • 2004: Pacificare joins Integrated Healthcare Association (IHA) inauguration. IHA is a P4P program that has ten times the bonus payments as QIP and included six of California’s largest health plans.

The authors have Pacificare’s quality measures before QIP, during QIP and during IHA. As a control group, the authors use Pacificare provider quality measures in Oregon and Washington which were not subject to any P4P incentives.

The authors hypothesize the P4P will improve quality for the service for which providers receive bonuses. For non-P4P services, there will be quality improvements when a performance metric shares commonality in production with many other medical services. For instance, bonuses based on identification and scheduling will improve overall quality. On the other hand, bonuses who’s quality metric depends on physician time or effort will likely decrease quality on non-measured dimensions.

Results

“Of the six measures initially rewarded by IHA, only cervical cancer screening showed consistently positive returns.” Chlamydia screening also improved after it was added to the IHA list. “On the other hand, appropriate asthma medication rates actually decreased…when P4P was introduced in California…Preferred antibiotic usage, which was rewarded by the small-scale QIP but ignored by the larger IHA effort also declined…”

Conclusion

P4P is a very blunt instrument. In some cases it works fairly well but in other cases it does not. One problem with P4P is that it that it confuses three aspects of medical care: 1) getting patients who need medical care into the doctors office, 2) getting physicians to provide the correct care to the patients in the office and 3) documenting the care. The first problem is one of outreach and a reminder recall system, but also depends on the demographics of the physician’s patient based. The second aspect could be better measured with a missed opportunity metric. And the third would be made easier with EMR.

Is P4P rewarding doctors who have rich patients that see the doctor often? Is P4P rewarding doctors who document care more accurately? Or is P4P really improving the quality of medical care?

Because P4P is such a blunt instrument, policymakers and insurance companies cannot answer these questions.

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Do people gain weight after marriage?  A paper by Jeffrey and Rick (2002) says yes.  Using data collected from 2528 workers over a 2 year period, the authors estimated the effect of marriage and divorce on weight gain.  They found the following:

Getting married increases BMI by 0.70 for men and 0.96 for women.  For the average American male and female, this translates into a 4.8 pound increase for men and a 5.6 pound increase for women.  

Getting divorced actually decreases BMI.  The coefficients estimated were -0.27 for men and -0.63 for women; this translates into weight losses of 1.8 pounds for men and 3.7 pounds for women.  

The authors also found that “spouses tend to become more similar in body weight over time, indicating that environmental influences are an important cause of spouse weight similarity.”

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Narrow-mindedness is one of the flaws of human cognition.  Often times, perceived conflicts of interests or bias may just be due to narrow-minded thought.

For instance, George Bush decided to invade Iraq.  While I do not want to argue the merits or demerits of the invasion, likely one of the reasons Bush decided to invade the country was because he wanted the U.S. to have a steady supply of oil.  Is oil that important?  From Bush’s point of view, it likely is.  He formed Arbusto Energy, an oil company and much of his family was involved in the oil industry.

What about Henry Paulson?  He decided a Wall Street bailout (e.g., Bear Sterns, AIG) was the best way revive the economy.  Is this because he is corrupt and a Wall Street crony?  Likely no.  However, he did work at Goldman Sachs for many years.  Thus, he likely overestimates the importance of Wall Street in the economy because that is where he built his career.  Paulson has many friends in Wall Street who informed him of their problems.  Paulson, likely has less friends in the trucking industry–who is also suffering from a stagnating economy and high gas prices–so he knows less about the trucking industry’s problems.

How do we solve the health care crisis?  The Healthcare Economist received his training in economics and you may notice that he often uses an economic framework to analyze issues.  Is economics always the right framework?  Likely no.

These three examples are derivatives of the problem of availability bias.  Individuals base their decisions on the information available to them.  However, the information available to any one person does not give the whole picture.  This leads to the quotation in the title of this blog post.  How do we fix the problem of availability bias?  Salon.com gives some instruction:

“You know the joke that economists like to tell each other about the drunk looking for his keys under the streetlight, not because that’s where he lost them, but because that’s where the light is? That’s just the way life is — you use the tools that you’ve got to examine the problems that you’ve got, whether they are big problems or small ones. What really makes economics move forward is when somebody learns how to build a new streetlight, or a portable streetlight, or an infrared streetlight…”

Learn to use your own infrared streetlight.

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The latest edition of the Health Wonk Review is up at the Colorado Health Insurance Insider.  There are a bunch of great articles analyzing how Obama and the Democratic Congress will change health care in America.

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Google searches as a public health resource:

Google.org has released Flu Trends, an online reporting tool for flu-related search activity. It’s long been theorized that Google’s search data would be useful to predict epidemics. This is the first time they’ve released a tool like this to the public. As they say on the main page:

We have found a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms. Of course, not every person who searches for “flu” is actually sick, but a pattern emerges when all the flu-related search queries from each state and region are added together. We compared our query counts with data from a surveillance system managed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and discovered that some search queries tend to be popular exactly when flu season is happening. By counting how often we see these search queries, we can estimate how much flu is circulating in various regions of the United States.

This tool comes to us via Google.org’s Predict & Prevent initiative. You can download the data for your own analysis.

[Update, 14 May 2009: Google is refining their Flu Trends data by asking people questions about their flu searches.]

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