Comments on: Why the CDC ignored Swine Flu warnings: Type I vs. Type II Errors

By: Joe (swine flu symptoms) porter

Joe (swine flu symptoms) porter — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:47:57 +0000

From some reports, they said the H1N1 pandemic was to creat a new panic situation to the world. The vaccine itself was rejected by most frontliners of H1N1 pandemic. It was reported that the vaccine will do more harm than cure.

By: Wilddog

Wilddog — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:05:26 +0000

i thought bayes was a bit more complicated:
P(H1N1|symptoms) = [P(Symptoms|H1N1)*P(HIN1)] / [P(Symptoms|H1N1)*P(HIN1) + P(symptoms|no H1N1)*P(no H1N1)]

How would you figure out P(symptoms|no H1N1)?

By: Jamie

Jamie — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 01:12:22 +0000

In response to Raman:

While the author did arrive at the correct conclusion that the probability is .01, there are many mistakes in the use of formulas as well as subsituting the correct numbers and making the correct calculations.

Here is the correct way to approach the problem:

Pr(H1N1|symptoms)=(Pr(H1N1)xPr(symptoms|H1N1))/Pr(symptoms)

Therefore, Pr(H1N1|symptoms)=(.0002×1)/(.02)=.01

By: Cavalcade of Risk: The Spamalot Version « The Sentinel Effect

Cavalcade of Risk: The Spamalot Version « The Sentinel Effect — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:35:09 +0000

[...] Shafrin presents Why the CDC ignored Swine Flu warnings: Type I vs. Type II Errors posted at Healthcare Economist, saying, “Why did the CDC and WHO ignore early warnings of a [...]

By: Raman

Raman — Tue, 19 May 2009 17:42:54 +0000

Was wondering if the Bayes rule stated
P(H1N1|symptoms) = P(Symptoms|H1N1)*P(HIN1)/P(Symptoms) because has overlooked the formula myself.

By: Cardigan

Cardigan — Thu, 14 May 2009 21:14:59 +0000

It seems to me that they acted more swiftly in regards to the avian flu than they did with the swine flu. Perhaps even more disturbing the the lack of investigation as to the origin of the H1N1. Sadly, despite press being relatively low these days, the virus is still spreading rather quickly, from what I can tell on FluCount.org