June 2009

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The Disease Management Care Blog hosts this week’s edition of the Cavalcade of Risk.

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This week I’ll be in Vancouver for the Western Economic Association International Conference.  

I’ll be presenting my paper on “Why Does Getting Married Make You Fat? Incentives and Appearance Maintenance.”

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The cover story of this week’s Economist examings healthcare reform in America (“This is going to hurt“).  The story recounts some of the many ills of the U.S. healthcare system: too many uninsured, too expensive, and low quality outcomes.  This is not news.  What does The Economist propose to fix the American healthcare system?  

 

  • Pay doctors a salary.  In general, I support this idea, but it only works if doctors are employees.  Medicare would never pay doctors a salary; they could never track how many patients they saw or how much work they did.  The only way Medicare physicians would be paid a salary was: 1) if they were direct employees of Medicare or 2) they worked for employers who decided to pay them a salary.  For instance, if large, centralized healthcare systems (e.g., Kaiser Permanente, Mayo Clinic) took payments from Medicare directly, it could pay their own physicians a salary.  Salaried remuneration decreases physician incentives to work hard compared to fee-for-service payment, but since overtreatment rather than undertreatment is one of the main problems in the U.S., the salary system could work.  See my own research on how physician compensation affects surgery rates.
  • Get NICE.  The Economist believes that America could use a cost-effectiveness agency like the UK’s NICE.  I agree.
  • Align incentives.  Will pay-for-performance improve health care?  The Economist thinks so but I am skeptical that it will have a large impact.  Medical care is so complicated that paying for better outcomes on one dimension will distract providers from focusing on less measurable, but perhaps more important dimensions.  For instance, the Economist advocates that paying bonuses in Sweden lead to shorter wait times.  However, in the UK, setting the goal that all patients should be treated within four hours of arriving at the emergency room, lead to some perverse incentives.  ”Thousands of people a year are having to wait outside accident and emergency departments because trusts will not let them in until they can treat them within four hours, in line with a Labour pledge.”

Overall, The Economist has some valid ideas of how to improve health care.  However, broad pronouncements will not get the job done.  We need a systems approach in order to decrease the amount of unnecessary medical services and increase the quality of the important medical services that are given.  Like any reform, this is easier said than done.

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What are hospitals like in the Netherlands?  A paper by Blank and Van Hulst (2009) give some insight.  The paper studies Dutch general hospitals.  These hospitals make up 80% of beds on 70% of hospital costs.  Non-general hospitals include academic hospitals and specialty hospitals (e.g., eye clinics and rehabilitation clinics).

Hospitals in the Netherlands

“Hospitals, like other health-related institutions in The Netherlands, are owned and operated predominantly by locally controlled, private not-for-profit foundations (stichtingen).” [Saltman and de Roo (1989)]  The hospital sector in general is highly regulated.  Provider wages are regulated.  The central government regulates capacity and provides prospective payment budget.

Budgets consist of a fixed component related to capacity and a variable component related to production. The fixed component is based on the so-called adherence (the number of patients potentially using the hospital), the number of beds, and the number of associated physicians. The production related component is based on regional agreements on the numbers of first-time visits, inpatient days, daycare patient days, and the number of discharges.

Severity of cases and the type of specialists on staff can also affect budgets as well.  This budget, however, is a legal and not a monetary measure.  Insurance companies pay the hospital through prices set by the Central Tariffs Health Care agency.  Hospitals can not make a profit, but surplus revenue can go towards capital improvements.

Another important feature of the Dutch hospital sector is that hospitals cannot choose their patients.Patients are referred to a hospital by general practitioners. They choose a hospital with a convenient location compared with other hospitals and based on availability of the appropriate specialties.Hospitals are obliged to treat any patient presented to them, provided that they have the medical knowledge required for the treatment. In practice, hospitals can attract patients by supplying particular specialties or a high quality of care. This implies that expansion of high-tech medical treatments may be another goal.

Statistics and Trends

Statistics on the Dutch hospital industry can be found in this table.  We see that the number of general hospitals decreased from 109 in 1995 to 89 2002.  This was due to both closures and mergers.  First-time hospital visits increased at an annual rate of 4% per year, but the number of inpatient days decrease by about 4% per year.  This indicates a trend towards fewer overnight hospital stays.  Overall, costs rose by more than 6% per year in nominal terms or about 4% in real terms.

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The L.A. Times reports on Frank Lucero, a man arrested for drug use, petty theft.  Mr. Lucero had glaucoma and while he was in prison, his eye ailment went untreated.  

Lucero hadn’t been able to see much since being diagnosed with glaucoma while at Soledad State Prison in 2005. Still, with medication, he was able to work jobs moving furniture in between time served for drug use, petty theft and skipped meetings with his parole agent.
…three months into a yearlong sentence, with dozens of appeals to see an eye doctor unheeded and the pain growing unbearable, Lucero said, he still had neither the anti-inflammatory medication nor a prescription for glasses.
He had headaches and dizziness.  His equilibrium and speech were affected.
“Some days I couldn’t put together a sentence without yammering and stuttering,” he said.
On May 23, 2008, Lucero was sitting on his bunk, his head cradled in his hands, when his throbbing eyeball “just exploded.”

Lucero hadn’t been able to see much since being diagnosed with glaucoma while at Soledad State Prison in 2005. Still, with medication, he was able to work jobs moving furniture in between time served for drug use, petty theft and skipped meetings with his parole agent.

…three months into a yearlong sentence, with dozens of appeals to see an eye doctor unheeded and the pain growing unbearable, Lucero said, he still had neither the anti-inflammatory medication nor a prescription for glasses.

He had headaches and dizziness.  His equilibrium and speech were affected.

“Some days I couldn’t put together a sentence without yammering and stuttering,” he said.

On May 23, 2008, Lucero was sitting on his bunk, his head cradled in his hands, when his throbbing eyeball “just exploded.”

Should Prisoners get health insurance?
With state budgets reeling, how much of a priority should health care be for prison inmates?  Many people will argue that it should be very low on the list.  Why should prisoners get ‘free’ health care when there are 45 million employed Americans?

On the other hand, even employed Americans have the right to purchase medical using their own savings or through taking out debt.  Prisoners do not have this option.  Further, since the state is the custodian of these prisoners, it has a fiduciary right to give them at least a minimal level of health care.  

Giving Frank Lucero glaucoma drops would have been much cheaper than paying for an ambulance to after his eye burst from the pressure.

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On Wednesday, the U.S. men’s national soccer team upset Spain, the #1 team in the world (see video highlights).  They will play in the Confederations Cup Final on June 28th against either Brazil or host South Africa.

In honor of the surprising U.S. victory, this edition of the Health Wonk Review will examine some equally surprising findings in the world of health care from the web’s best and brightest bloggers.

LEADOFF

Atul Gawande’s New Yorker article on cost differences between similar Texas cities has garnered a lot of attention.  Daniel Gilden of The Health Care Blog investigates Gawande’s claimsof supplier-induced demand in McAllen: The Tale of Three Counties

Health Care Renewal: Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are offering to market particular drugs…for a fee.

 

HEALTH REFORM IDEAS

HEALTH CARE in CANADA

PUBLIC HEALTH and WORKERS’ COMP

TECHNOLOGY

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The Boston Globe reports that “Overseers of Massachusetts’ trailblazing healthcare program made their first cuts yesterday, trimming $115 million, or 12 percent, from Commonwealth Care, which subsidizes premiums for needy residents and is the centerpiece of the 2006 law.”  The reduction in the Commonwealth Care was caused by the bad economy.  Not only does a bad economy mean fewer tax revenues as earnings are cut, but demand for government health insurance grows as laid off employees lose employer provided care.

Opponents of government health plan may use this as evidence that government-run health care can’t work.  This is not the case however.  In a bad economy with private insurance, workers lose coverage when they lose their jobs.  If they do decide to purchase a nongroup health insurance plan, they will likely choose a less expensive plan.  Thus a bad economy effects individuals similarly with and without government provided health insurance; with fewer resources to go around everyone must cut medical expenditures irrespective of whether there is a government-provided health plan.  

The difference between the less generous insurance benefits is who decides on the cuts.  In a free market plan, individuals decide for themselves how much insurance to buy.  However, for some individuals who lose their jobs, health insurance will be unaffordable.  On the other hand, bureaucrats determine what will be cut in a government health plan.  

Democrats will argue that mediocre insurance for all is better than great insurance for some and none for others.  Republicans will claim that a government-run healthcare system will necessarily lead to mediocre insurance coverage in any bad economy. Further, legal immigrants may not be eligible for Commonwealth Care in order to save money.  Thus, there will still be individuals without insurance.

Who perspective do you think is right?

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Southern California is in the midst of a drought.  What is the city doing to conserve water?  They are resorting to new rules and ‘water cops‘.

  • Apartments, Condos and Businesses can water: Monday, Wednesday & Friday
  • Homes with odd-numbered addresses can water: Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday
  • Homes with even-numbered addresses can water: Saturday, Monday & Wednesday
  • Apartments, Condos and Businesses can water: Monday, Wednesday & Friday
  • On your watering day, you may only water before 10 a.m. or after 6 p.m.
  • Landscape irrigation using sprinklers is limited to no more than ten minutes maximum per watering station per assigned day.

Isn’t there an easier way?  Of course.  The answer is to raise the price of using water.  I’ve broached this idea in two previous posts.   Charging more for water (especially during a drought) will accomplish the same goal as these arcane rules set out to do: reduce water demand.

Watering at night or early in the morning saves water because less water evaporates at this time of day. If water is more expensive, people will voluntarily water early or late in the day to save water.  Further, a higher price of water compel people to 1) water less and 2) plant vegetation that requires less water such as succulents.  This way people will water when they please, but will water less often and with less water.

Economists believe that getting prices right will lead to efficient market allocation; in the case of water conservation, economists are almost certainly correct.

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  • Yes: Jonathan Weiner, Professor of Health Policy at Johns Hopkins 
  • No: Michael Cannon, the Cato Institute’s Director of Health Policy Studies
Three step formula to long-term Pharma profits:
  • Step 1: Create revolutionary medicine.
  • Step 2: Patent the medicine to collect in the profits.
  • Step 3: When the patent expires, combine the drug with another in order to extend its patent life and keep profits high.

Most people believe that Step 1 and 2 are ok.  The companies who make revolutionary drugs should be compensated for their R&D expenditures.  But simply repackaging their products to extend patent life?  This seems extremely inefficient.

This is exactly what GlaxoSmithKline did with its  migraine pill Imitrex, whose U.S. patent ran out in February.  It combined Imitrex with naproxen (a non-prescription anti-inflammatory drug) to form a new patented medicine: Treximet.

This time, doctors and insurers may be wising up.  Bloomberg reports:

…doctors and insurers object to the cost, calling the pill no better than the two generic drugs it combines…The expense of those two generics together may soon fall to $5 a dose, said Time Heady, chief of the pharmaceutical solutions unit for UnitedHealth Group Inc., which refuses to pay for Treximet on most of its plans…”There are instances where drugs are being brought to market that really aren’t different or offering any real benefit from a clinical or cost perspective. In those instances, it makes sense not to cover the drug at all.”

No sense at all.

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