January 2010

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“Classical deterrence theory has long held that the threat of a mild punishment imposed reliably and immediately has a much greater deterrent effect than the threat of a severe punishment that is delayed and uncertain.”

People today want high quality health care at lower cost (to be honest, people throughout history have always wanted better quality and lower cost).  However, defining the ‘value’ of medical services is not easy.  In fact, it is often difficult for companies to demonstrate to customers that they provide superior value.  Joe Paduda has a great post which evaluated who different managed care stakeholders evaluate the healthcare value differently.

  • For the managed care exec, value can be easily defined as costs that are lower, usually on a per-service basis, than they would otherwise pay. X% less than current pricing is better than current pricing, so the benefit is obvious and clear.
  • For the adjuster, the definition isn’t quite so apparent. With a desk swamped under case files and a screen stuffed with flashing ‘red flags’ on critical diary entries, there’s less focus on finding the cheapest wheelchair and more interest in picking a vendor that can take work off the adjuster’s desk, do it competently and without claimant complaint, and provide documentation that, at a maximum, is readily cut-and-pasted into the claim file.
  • For the claim manager, it’s about closing files, minimizing litigation, and avoiding those calls from Home Office management about low network penetration and excessive use of non-authorized vendors, while struggling to keep overworked, underpaid, and unappreciated adjusters on the job and out of the clutches of headhunters.
  • For the employer, value is fast, thorough medical care that gets the injured worker back on the job and keeps her/him there…unless the employer is dealing with declining revenues, in which case they don’t want John/Jane Doe back at work no matter what, as there isn’t any job for her/him and they sure don’t want to yet another unemployment claim.
  • For the TPA, value is defined as the savings below fee schedule or U&C, which is the basis for calculation of their managed care fees, typically around 25 – 30%. The more services, the bigger the bills, the more ‘savings’ generated and the more fees ‘earned’.

Even in health care, value is truly in the eye of the beholder.

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The latest edition of the Cavalcade of Risk is up at Colorado Health Insurance Insider.

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How is the health care labor market in your area?  HWS Enterprises put together a gauge of the healthcare workforce labor demand throughout 30 large metropolitan regions in the United States.  The results for Q4 are available here.  The strongest healthcare labor markets are Sacramento, Riverside, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Dallas.  The weakest is New York City.  My home, San Francisco, ranked 18th out the 30 large metro areas evaluated.

According to the Health Workforce Solutions’ press release:

The HWS Labor Market Pulse® Index (LMPI) provides a quarterly barometer of local market health care workforce expansion and contraction. Patterned loosely after the Case-Shiller home index and based on a proprietary algorithm, the LMPI identifies and enables comparison of 30 health care labor markets by tracking elements including temporary health workforce shortages and surpluses, facility and bed closures, announced layoffs and expansions, and local economic trends. The LMPI will be published quarterly as part of Labor Market Pulse® and distributed nationally to health care executives, the media and other interested parties.

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From a letter in Health Affairs:

In 1996 Pfizer came to Kano to administer a test of the drug Trovan for a meningitis outbreak. One hundred children were given Trovan, and another hundred were given chloramphenicol, a drug approved by the World Health Organization (WHO).  Of the 200 children, eleven died due to Trovan and low dosages of chloramphenicol, and many others suffered injuries (paralysis, deafness, blindness, brain damage, liver damage, and joint disease) from Trovan. The U.S. Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Trovan for adults in 1997 but severely restricted its use in 1999. Europe banned it outright.

In 2000 a Nigerian report exposed the negative outcomes from this drug trial; in Kano there were street demonstrations and demands for reform. Thirty families sued Pfizer in 2001, and in 2007 the Nigerian and Kano State governments also sued for damages. In February 2009 there was an out-of-court settlement
for a reported $45 million.

This incidentwas on everyone’s mind when WHO personnel showed up in Kano with an American-made vaccine for polio eradication…There was a political dimension to this problem, but people were wary of any medicine from the United States.  When Muslim religious leaders stated that the vaccine would sterilize young girls—a terrible outcome like that of Trovan—the program was “boycotted.”

  • Alan Frishman, Hobart and Wm. Smith Colleges, Geneva, New York

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Megan McArdle broke a story that Jon Gruber, a famous MIT health economist, was paid $300,000 by the Obama Administration for “special studies and analysis” of the health care bills.  Did this sway his opinion on the evaluation on endorsing various legislative bills?

I would say no.  Dr. Gruber is a well respected health economist who has long supported health reform efforts.  He was one the principal advisers for the design of the Massachusetts’ health reform.  What I’m trying to say, is that Dr. Gruber likely already had a bias towards health reform and the $300,000 likely did not affect the analysis he would have done if he had not been paid.

I would hope that money would not affect Dr. Gruber’s econometric research whatsoever.  What it could influence is his decision to endorse specific bills.  Any bill has pros and cons which hopefully Dr. Gruber would uncover unbiasedly in his evaluation.  Taken as a whole, however, the money may have helped convince Dr. Gruber to give a more positive tone to the overall bill in interview.

The fact that Dr. Gruber was paid to do research should not appall anyone; a researcher has to earn a living somehow.   McArdle’s discovery should not be any sort of a scandal, but it should make the public realize that no academic researchers is ever perfectly unbiased.

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Three Cups of Tea

I just finished reading Three Cups of Tea, an interesting book chronicling of an amazing man dedicated towards bringing schools to rural areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan.  The book describes Greg Mortenson’s single minded purpose and reinforces the saying that the pen is mighter than the sword.  In fact, according to one Pakistani Brigadier General, Mortenson’s work can also have an effect on the war on terror.

Osama is not a product of Pakistan or Afghanistan.  He is a creation of America.  Thanks to America, Osama is in every home.  As a military man, I know you can never fight and win against someone who can shoot at you once and then run off and hide while you have to remain eternally on guard.  You have to attack the source of your enemy’s strength.  In America’s case, that’s not Osama or Saddam or anyone else.  The enemy is ignorance.  The only way to defeat it is to build relationships with these people, to draw them into the modern world with education and business.  Otherwise the fight will go on forever.”

To donate to Greg Mortenson’s Central Asia Institute, please visit this website.

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Here are some writing tips from “Writing Economics” by Robert Neugeboren with Mireille Jacobson:

  • Outline. Organize your ideas into an argument with the help of an outline.
  • Define the important terms.
  • Use the Active Voice.
  • Put Statements in Positive Form.  Don’t write “Many day-traders did not pay attention to the warnings of experts.” Instead use “Many day-traders ignored the warnings of experts.”
  • Omit Needless Words.
  • Stick to One Tense in Summaries.
  • Summaries and Repetition.  “When writing up your empirical results focus only on what is important
    and be as clear as possible. You may feel that you are repeating yourself and that the reader may be offended at how closely you are leading him or her through your tables and graphs but, to paraphrase John Kenneth Galbraith, both smart and dumb readers will appreciate your pointing things out directly and clearly. The dumb readers need the help, and the smart ones will take silent pleasure in the knowledge that they didn’t need your assistance!”
  • Edit yourself, remove what is not needed, and keep revising until you get down to a simple, efficient way of communicating.

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