The World Cup tournament began today with a 1-1 tie between Mexico and the host South Africa. The USA’s first game is against England on Saturday. Who will win the World Cup? Using ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the following tournament favorites:
- Brazil (21.6%)
- Spain (15.5%)
- England (11.7%)
- Argentina (8.8%)
- Netherlands (8.7%)
According to this method, the USA only has a 1.1% chance of winning, but the odds it will make it out of the group stage are 56.9%.