Barack Obama. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, Obama has a 90 percent chance of winning the election. Further, Obama is trending upwards. According to Silver:
Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
Silver predicts Obama will win most swing states including Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The only swing state where Romney has a lead is North Carolina. Florida is too close to call.
7 Eleven’s “7 Election” poll also has Obama in the lead as well.
Deadspin has an interesting profile on election forecasting expert Nate Silver.