Statisitics and the Sports Illustrated Jinx

Daniel Kahneman explains the false inference many people make between causation and regression to the mean. A well-known example is the “Sports Illustrated jinx,” the claim that an athlete whose picture appears on the cover of the magazine is doomed to perform poorly the following season.  Overconfidence and the pressure of meeting high expectations are…

Stroke Risk

Atrial Fibrillation (AFib) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia (irregular heart beat). Although AFib may cause no symptoms,  it is often associated with symptoms such as palpitations, fainting, chest pain, or congestive heart failure.  In some people, however, Afib is caused by otherwise idiopathic or benign conditions.  AFib also increases the risk of stroke. If you…

Is Quality of Care within a Hosptial Homogeneous?

According to a paper by Zhang, Hauck and Zhao (2013), the answer is ‘no‘.   Using a Bayesian approach (i.e., three-level random intercept probit mode) the authors find that different specialties within the same hospital can provide very different quality of care to the patients.  The authors summarize their findings as follows: Of the variation in…