Health Reform

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According to Avalere Health the people who will be added to Medicaid through healthcare reform are more sick — and therefore will be more expensive to treat — than current beneficiaries.  This chart below uses data from the 2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to demonstrate this point.

 

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The California Healthcare Foundation (CHCF) notes that States face a number of challenges when determining how to design their Health Exchanges mandated by health reform.  Today, I briefly highlight some of the requirements State Exchanges must fulfill.
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One of the goals of health reform was to expand coverage to poor childless adults who previously did not qualify for Medicaid.  One unintended (or perhaps intended) consequence of this expansion is that a large number of individuals formerly convicted of crimes will be eligible for the this coverage.

Policymakers face a number of questions.  First, do these ex-offenders “deserve” coverage?  Many in the public may wonder why middle class individuals should be uninsured when the government is providing health care for ex-offenders.  On the other hand, those who served time have already paid their debt to society.  Should the be punished again by being disqualified for entitlement programs for which they are eligible?

Regardless of whether you think ex-offenders should be eligible for this Medicaid expansion, they without a doubt do have a number of medical problems which require treatment. NPR describes some of the challenges these individuals face.

According to Dr. George Pearson, “…a 45-year-old ex-convict will often have the ailments of someone 10 years older. Ex-convicts have higher rates of almost all chronic conditions, like high blood pressure, diabetes and asthma. It’s from living a hard life, to be sure, he says, but it’s also because they have common medical problems that go untreated.

‘So the hypertension becomes heart failure, the diabetes becomes diabetic neuropathy, amputation, blindness,’ Pearson says.”

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Avalere Health provides a nice summary of some of the estimates of how health reform will affect the rate at which employers offer health insurance.  The provisions which may have an impact on health insurance offering include:

  • Free-rider penalties (+)
  • Exchanges (?)
  • Medicaid expansion (-)
  • Individual mandate (+)
  • Small business tax credit (+)
  • Insurance market reforms/grandfathering (-)
  • High-cost plan excise tax (-)

Using different methodologies and data files, a variety of reputable research firms have arrived at differing conclusions on the impact of health reform on ESI. Here are six estimates ordered from most negative to most positive impact:

  • Holz-Eakin: -22.3%
  • Booz Allen Hamilton: -4.5%
  • Congressional Budget Office (CBO): -1.9%
  • The Lewin Group: -1.8%
  • Urban Institute: Little net change
  • RAND: +8.7%

Sources:

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The Healthcare Economist predicts a religious revival in 2014.  Let me be more specific, in January 2014.  How do I know this?  Am I a religious man?  Has God spoken to me?

Let’s just say I have a certain insight.  In 2014, the individual mandate goes into effect.  All individuals must buy health insurance or else they will pay a tax penalty to the federal government.  Well…not all individuals.  Certain people with religious objections would not have to get health insurance. [American Indians, illegal immigrants, or people in prison would also not have to buy insurance].

The Amish and Old Order Mennonites, for instance, do not have to buy insurance through a ‘religious conscience’ exception.  Will health reform lead to an increase in the number of Amish Americans in 2014?

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While walking around in San Francisco’s Presidio, I noticed a refurbished building which happened to be a former Public Health Service Hospital.  After investigating its origins, I dug up the following information regarding one of the United States’ first efforts to provide an individual health insurance mandate:

In July of 1798, Congress passed – and President John Adams signed - “An Act for the Relief of Sick and Disabled Seamen.” The law authorized the creation of a government operated marine hospital service and mandated that privately employed sailors be required to purchase health care insurance…First, it created the Marine Hospital Service, a series of hospitals built and operated by the federal government to treat injured and ailing privately employed sailors. This government provided healthcare service was to be paid for by a mandatory tax on the maritime sailors (a little more than 1% of a sailor’s wages), the same to be withheld from a sailor’s pay and turned over to the government by the ship’s owner. The payment of this tax for health care was not optional. If a sailor wanted to work, he had to pay up.

 

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Is the Massachusetts health reform a success?  Yes and no.

In terms of increasing access to health care, it has been an unqualified success.  According to the Economist, only1.9% of Massachusetts residents were uninsured in 2010.

Massachusetts’ health reform has not been able to offer universal access to health care or to constrain costs. “ One in five working-age adults say they have trouble finding a doctor who will see them…Spending on MassHealth, the programme for the poor, rose 40% between 2006 and 2010….average monthly premiums rose by 12% between 2006 and 2008. True, a higher share of firms now offer coverage, but they are also shifting costs for that coverage to employees”

Massachusetts is trying to legislatively block health premium increases.  Reducing health insurance cost, however, will likely drive down provider reimbursement and either increase cost sharing or decrease access to health care.

The key takeaway from this post is the following: “Access to health insurance does not guarantee access to health care.”

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Much of health reform’s efforts has been focused on expanding coverage to those without employer-sponsored insurance (ESI).  For instance, the ACA mandated expanded Medicaid eligibility and the creation of a health insurance exchange for those not eligible for a group plan or those who work for small employers.

One area of study which has been neglected, however, is the effect of health reform on ESI.  For non-elderly Americans, ESI is still the primary mechanism through which individuals finance the provision of health care services.  A recent Urban Institute report uses a simulation model to estimate how health reform would effect coverage through ESI.  I discuss this article after the jump.

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Section 1311 of the ACA requires a state to establish an Health Insurance Exchanges for the individual and small group market.  How will states actually implement these Exchanges?  A brief from the National Academy of Social Insurance reviews some of the program parameters which States will have to establish.

What type of entity will the exchange be?

  1. Option 1: Establish the Exchange within an existing executive branch agency, either as part of the Governor’s cabinet or subordinate to a cabinet-level agency.
  2. Option 2: Create an Exchange as an independent executive branch agency with its own governing board, as was done in Massachusetts and more recently in California.
  3. Option 3: Establish an Exchange as a nonprofit entity, separate from state government.

Not any insurance plan can be sold in the Exchange.  “The ACA requires that health plans sold in the Exchange meet certain criteria, including marketing, network adequacy, accreditation, and quality improvement requirements.   However, the ACA does not preclude a state from adopting additional standards for qualified health plans.”

Individuals with sufficiently low income will receive a subsidy to purchase health plans through the exchange.  Although subsidies are received as income tax credits, low-income individuals can receive these credits in advance if their prior year income is low income.  People who are ineligible due to high levels of income from previous years will only receive the subsidies as part of their tax return.  On the other hand, people who were poor in previous years and eligible for subsidies could in fact be ineligible if their income rises (this is the subject of a working paper by John Graves).  In these cases, the Exchange must develop a procedure to recoup the money from ex post ineligible individuals.

Is there a problem with adverse selection?

The answer is yes in the following three cases:

  • Guaranteed Issue would eliminate medical underwriting,
  • Marketing practices may target healthier individuals,
  • Products offered outside the exchange could be less comprehensive and also lower cost, and thus attract healthier workers.

To fight this problem, the ACA includes provisions such as temporary federal reinsurance and risk corridor programs, market-wide risk pooling, and market-wide state risk adjustment

What consumer protections does the ACA mandate? First, there will likely be brokers and agents who provide services to help consumers pick plans.  In addition, Exchanges must establish a Navigator program, awarding grants to eligible entities to carry out education, enrollment and information dissemination activities. To further protect consumers, products offered in the Exchange must be licensed by state insurance regulators.  There are three options for Exchanges to set up a system for State Insurance regulation of Exchange health plans.

  • Place all licensure and solvency requirements on the State Regulators,
  • Split the licensure load between State Insurance regulators and the Exchange.
  • Have insurance regulators ensure that plans meet licensure and solvency requirements (as they do now), but the Exchange would determine whether a plan meets all other ACA and Exchange requirements

Medicaid and the Exchange

How different will Medicaid and Exchange regulation be when Medicaid programs contract with HMOs?  The ACA aims to harmonize the two regulation schemes.  In fact, ACA includes provisions recommending common health plan certification standards on matters such as provider networks, coverage terms, and quality performance standards in order to promote health plan participation in both the Medicaid and Exchange markets.  “Finally, because recoupment of advance premium tax credits is anticipated in cases in which families undergo a change in income that affects the size of the credit to which they are entitled, the NASI options include provisions for the Exchange to assist consumers in reporting income changes that might affect the amount of subsidy, as well as in qualifying for any “safe harbor” against federal recoupment that might ultimately be recognized in federal rules.”

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The Purple Health Plan is supposed to be a “moderate” plan for health reform–purple is after all a mix of red and blue.  The plan is endorsed by five Nobel laureates.  So what is the Purple Health Plan?

Key provisions of the plan include the following:

  • All Americans receive a voucher each year to purchase a standard plan from the private-plan provider of their choice.
  • Vouchers are individually risk-adjusted; those with higher expected healthcare costs, based on documented medical conditions, receive larger vouchers.
  • Participating insurance companies providing standard plans cannot deny coverage.Americans choose doctors and hospitals included in the standard plan they choose.
  • Plan providers offer supplemental plans to their participants and cannot deny supplemental insurance coverage to their participants.
  • The government (federal and state) ends the tax exclusion of employer-provided health insurance premiums.
  • Like all other Americans, Medicare, Medicaid, and health exchange participants are covered by the Purple Health Plan subject to appropriate transition provisions.
  • Each year a panel of doctors sets the coverages of the standard plan subject to a strict budget, namely that the total cost to the government of the vouchers cannot exceed 10 percent of GDP.

Where did these Nobel Laureates come up with such an idea?  Would it work in practice?  It turns out, this basic framework has already been implemented in Switzerland.  I have already written about the Swiss system here, here and here.  One of this plan’s drawback is that risk adjustment will never be exact and adverse selection will always occur to varying degrees.  In addition, believing that a panel of doctors will conserve resources and not simply advocate an expansion benefits to their particular specialties seems a bit naive from my point of view.    Overall, however, I believe that this proposal is eminently reasonable.

 

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