Japan

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The before-and-after pictures of the tsunami in Japan are heart-wrenching.  And things look to be getting worse.  From the New York Times:

With hydrogen gas bubbling up from chemical reactions set off by the hot fuel rods, the storage pond produced a fire and powerful explosion on Tuesday morning that blew a 26-foot-wide hole in the side of reactor No. 4 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. There were also concerns about the storage ponds at reactors 5 and 6.

What is the health impact of the potential nuclear disaster?  According to the Kaiser Family Foundation:

The most immediate risk from high levels of radiation exposure is thyroid cancer, and the Japanese government is planning to distribute potassium iodide pills to help lessen the risk. In worst-case scenarios in which nearby residents are exposed to very high levels of radioactive fallout, they can develop other cancers years later. However, a complete meltdown of the reactors “would not necessarily mean medical doom, experts said. It depends on the amount and type of radioactive materials,” according to the article, which compares the current situation to previous nuclear reactor disasters at the Chernobyl plant in the Ukraine and the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania (3/15). According to CNN, two U.S.-based companies have received hundreds of orders for potassium iodide since the earthquake (Smith, 3/15).

This is just another reminder that medical care is only one component of health.  Your behavior (e.g., exercise, smoking), your genetics, and your environment (e.g., environmental pollutants like radiation) are also key contributers to health.  Let’s hope the environmental health influencers improve in Japan and the nuclear reactor is controlled quickly.

To donate to the relief effort:

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The cover of The Economist this week looked at America’s budget deficit.  According to their estimates, “America’s budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th stood at $1.3 trillion; at 9% of GDP, the second-largest since the second world war.”  The short run cause of this deficit is the recent severe recession, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the stimulus spending.  In the long run, however, entitlements will further destabilize the country’s fiscal soundness.  Entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid “…will double the federal debt by 2027; and the number keeps on rising after then.”

Nevertheless, the prospects for Japan look even bleaker.  While the U.S. debt has exceeded 50% of GDP, Japan’s debt is near 200% of GDP.  Further, Japan is aging quickly; the median age in Japan is 44.6.  Although a long life expectancy is a good thing, it will be difficult to support so many older workers without a concurrent rise in the number of workers.  Since the birth rate in Japan is so low (2nd lowest in the world), fewer and fewer youth are entering the job market.  More immigration could help, but it is currently difficult for non-Japanese immigrants to gain citizenship even after working in Japan for many decades.

More from the Economist:

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Here is my earlier review of the Japanese healthcare system.  Additional information on medical care in Japan is below.

Funding

  • The system is largely funded through payroll taxes.  Employees pay a larger share of the payroll tax than employers.    
  • Insurance is bought from public sector sources.
  • There is no private sector insurance companies.
  • Co-pays are generally 30%.

Insurance

  • Government managed plans cover 30% of workers.
  • Society plans cover 25% of workers.
  • Mutual Aid Association Insurers cover government employees and teachers.
  • There are separate insurance plans for certain groups of workers (e.g., day laborers, seamen).

Physicians

  • Physicians generally work on a fee-for-service basis.  Physicians with positions in a hospital, however, are on salary.
  • Physicians can sell prescriptions directly to patients.  Unsurprisingly, Japan has the highest consumption rate of pharmaceuticals per capita in the world.
  • There is no private sector practice.
  • There are no GPs.  All physicians are specialized, (except for physicians in rural areas)
  • Physicians do not emphasize prevention (e.g., periodic physical exams are not encouraged).  The government is the institution that takes the lead in providing preventive education.
  • Students move immediately to their internship following 6 years of college with no medical school in between.
  • Physician ratio: 1:500.

Malpractice

  • The Japanese Medical Association provides malpractice insurance for 45% of Japanese physicians.
  • Few claims are filed (less than 1 per 100 physicians).  Because of this, malpractice insurance is only about $500/year

Hospitals:

  • There are no community health centers, only clinics offering specialized services.
  • Patients entering a hospital have been required to find a sponsor who will agree to pay for the services delivered when the patient cannot.
  • When patients seek treatment in a hospital, they are expected to pay part of the bill in advance, with their insurance reimbursing them later.

Regulation:

  • All fees for all procedures are set by a government-organized panel including insurers, providers and citizens.

Source: Roth, WF (2010) Comprehensive Healthcare for the U.S.: An Idealized Model. Productivity Press, 174 pages.

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I just recently returned from my honeymoon in Tokyo, Japan and Bali, Indonesia.  One thing anyone visitng Tokyo will notice is that it is very clean .  Further, Japan has the most advanced toilets in the world.  On the other hand, most Balinese burn their trash.  Why is Tokyo so clean when other world cities are not? 

Let us assume that the average cleanliness of a city equals:

  • C=100-L/S

The variables above represent (C)leanliness, (L)ittering and street (S)weeping.  The maximum cleanliness level is 100. We can see that there are two ways that a society can have clean streets. 

  1. Reduce littering.  It is possible that different societies have different preferences for the amount of littering they will do.  Japan is a fairly formal culture individuals may go out of their way not to offend anyone by littering; or individuals may just have a natural affinity for cleanliness.
  2. Increase street sweeping frequency.  For any given level of littering, more frequent street sweeping will result in a cleaner society.

If a poilcy maker has a goal to increase cleanliness in an area, how best should they accomplish this?  Let assume the following cost function:

  • c=f(L0-L)+g(S)

Decreasing littering involves some cost.  Likely, the cost of decreasing littering exhibits decreasing returns.  Similarly, there are decreasing returns from increased street sweeping.  Everyone knows that vaccuuming your house twice per week doesn’t quite make a room twice as clean as vaccuuming only once per week would have. 

Thus, we are left with the old dilemma of prevention versus treatment.  “Preventing” littering involves educating individuals and convincing them not to litter in the first place.  “Treating” littering simply involves cleaning up the littering after it takes place.  I predict that preventing littering is a more cost effective alternative for all but the lowest cleanliness levels.

Regardless of how the Japanese do it, Japan is clean.

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Japan has universal health insurance based around a mandatory, employment-based insurance. “The Employee Health Insurance Program requires all companies with 700 of more employees to provide workers with health insurance among some 1,800 ‘society-managed’ plans. Nearly 85% of these plans cover a single company…Most of the rest of the [health insurance plans] are industry-based.” Small business workers join a government-run small business national insurance plan. The self employed and retirees are covered by the Citizens Insurance Program administered by municipal governments.

Japan has very generous health insurance benefits, significant provider choice, and high quality medical technology, but costs are not as high in the U.S. One reason for this is a significant level of cost sharing. The average Japanese household spends $2300 per year on out-of-pocket health care expenses (this figure excludes the payroll taxes used to finance health insurance premiums). Other reasons for lower health care costs is a healthy life-style, a lower incidence of disease and a general Japanese cultural aversion towards invasive procedures.

Another reason for lower costs is that the Japanese government sets a reimbursement fee schedule for all physician services. This has resulted in “assembly line medicine” where “two-thirds of patients spend less than 10 minutes with their doctor; 18 percent spend less than 3 minutes.”

Funding. The health insurance plans are funded by an 8.5% (for large business) or an 8.2% (for small-businesses) payroll tax . The small business national health insurance program is also supplemented by government funds. The payroll taxes are split almost evenly between the employer and the employee. Sometimes these funds are not sufficient to cover costs. In 2003, more than half of the insurance plans at large firms lost money and many companies are now joining industry-based plans. Those who are self-employed or retired must pay a self-employment tax. The Roken is financed by contributions from the Employee Health Insurance Program, the small-business national health insurance, and the Citizens Insurance Program. The elderly do not contribute to this plan.

Private Insurance. Very few Japanese use private, supplemental insurance. Private supplemental insurance pays for less than 1% of health care costs.

Physician Compensation. Hospital physicians are salaried employees but nonhospital physicians are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Hospitals and clinics are privately owned but the government sets the fee schedule, just as it does for private physicians. The fee-setting system, however, is very corrupt since there are over 3000 procedures whose price needs to be set. For instance, “[i]n 2004, a group of dentists was indicted for bribing the fee-setting board.”

Physician Choice. There are no restrictions on physician or hospital choice and no referral requirements.

Copayment/Deductibles. Copayments are 10% to 30%, but generally closer to 30%. Copayments are capped at $677 per month for the average family.

Technology. Japan has high levels of technology. Patients have just as much access to MRI and CT units as in the U.S. Further, because the government imposes a fee schedule, competition is based solely on technology (there is no price competition).

Waiting Times. Waiting times are a significant problem at the best hospitals. Since the best hospitals can not charge higher prices there will be a queue. Many hospitals have been known to accept “under the table” payment to see patients quicker. Thus, the market may be working, whether or not policy makers want it to do so.

Benefits covered. Very generous.

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