Stimulus

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Although the stimulus money may have helped the economy in the short run (1-2 years), in the near-term it seems to have exacerbated problems by bloating state government spending and postponing necessary cuts.

As part of the 2009 stimulus package, Washington gave the states $150 billion. The states became dependent on a higher level of federal aid — 35 percent of their budgets, compared with about 25 percent before. But the stimulus is ending, and the states will have to cut.

I would guess that there are asymmetric costs to increasing and decreasing the budget.  Increasing the budget is easy and generates short-term jobs.  Cutting budget, however, produces significant administrative costs as interest groups fight to maintain funding.  Further, more creative solutions to spending shortfalls are postponed when the Feds inject stimulus money for states.

Consider Vallejo, CA in the Bay Area.

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On Thursday I blogged that fiscal stimulus and bail outs may improve economic performance in the short run, but rarely in the long run.  Often these bailouts are accompanied by mandatory salary decreases for key company leadership.  It turns out that these bailouts may not even help in the short run…unless you are a company CEO.

A hacker nicknamed the Latvian Robin Hood gained access to confidential tax documents detailing that paycuts promised by the top brass of firms receiving bailouts often never materializes.

Data leaked so far includes pay details of managers from a Latvian bank that received a bail-out.  It reveals that many did not take the salary cuts they promised.  Other data shows that state-owned companies secretly awarded bonuses while publicly asking the government for help.

With Latvian unemployment nearing 23%, the public mood generally supports the Robin Hood Hacker and feels resentment at the company leaders who accepted public funds without sacrificing their own salary.

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” A substantial short-term rise in spending on defense and intelligence would both stimulate our economy and strengthen our nation’s security.” – Martin Feldstein in WSJ.

Robert Higgs disagrees.

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Many pundits are calling for Barack Obama to fund massive infrastructure projects.  UC-San Diego economist Jim Hamilton of  believes that increased block grants to states will not only stimulate the economy, but also permit states the flexibility they need to spend these fund efficiently.

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